Schmidt to LA… where’s our #2 now???

3 years, almost 16 million per year according to Rosenthal.  Is he worth it?  I’d have to say yes.  Should the Cards have went there?  I think the answer is no.  What now?  Will Walt try to pry Miguel Batista away from the Royals’ grasp simply because he’s the best (affordable) option left out there?

The question now is whether Batista would be a legitimate #2.  Is he worth 3/$24,000,000?  The jury is still out on those questions.

It may be time to start looking at who is available on the trade market to fill that #2 hole.

The return of “Crazy TLR” and other info

“We’ve always liked going to camp and stretching out pitchers,” La Russa said. … “I think the plan would be to have as many of those relievers come into camp extending their innings and their pitches, and I’m including Braden, Brad and Adam.”

Wow, let’s not get that desperate, OK. There is money to spend and do you really think that any one of those guys in the rotation would give the Cardinals a shot at winning back-to-back championships? I didn’t think so. We’ll just completely forget that TLR said that, mmmkay??

From the same article in the Post Dispatch come a few other tidbits…

The Cards have offered Jason Schmidt a three year deal worth reportedly $10-11.5 million a season.  That would be a steal but let’s be realistic, it will never happen at that price.  Strauss’ sources say that the deal could be “sweetened” by the week’s end.  I’d hope so, but think that it will take 13-15 million per year to get a deal done, and it would take some serious pondering to determine if Schmidt is worth that much.

Walt met with Mulder’s agent yesterday and want to sign him to a one year deal plus an option.

Jocketty hasn’t met with Boras about Weaver yet.

The “status quo” exists between Suppan and the ‘birds.

The Cardinals have hired former Pirates GM Cam Bonifay as a special assistant to Walt.

The Cardinals are laying the foundation for a Looper experiment by discussing one-year contracts with free-agent relievers Octavio Dotel and Dan Kolb.

I don’t think this has anything to do with Looper at all, rather I think this has everything to do with guaranteeing that Wainwright will be in the rotation next season.  They are not going to find two quality starting pitchers in this market and need Adam in the rotation.  A Dotel or Kolb would be able to fill Wainwright’s role and close if Izzy is not completely ready by opening day like he has said he would be. 

Free agent pitching

After ranking the free agent starters still available by their VORPs (from MLB.com and Baseballprospectus.com) I came up with a nicely ordered list of FA pitchers, but WordPress ate my table and I’m not going to reproduce it again.

Quickly looking at the list, the top 5 available SPs are Zito, Schmidt, Clemens, Pettitte, and (gasp) Suppan.  I don’t see the Cards competing for any of those guys (they could throw money at Zito/Schmidt, but it would not be wise at the amounts they are talking about), so we’ll jump to the next 5:

Ted Lilly, Miguel Batista, Gil Meche, Steve Trachsel, Aaron Sele

Unless the Cards want to get involved in the bidding war for Lilly, either Batista or Meche look to be the only viable options to pursue.  Trade possibilities seem to be the better way to go, and actually suit Walt better anyway (we might get rid of JuanE too).  We are looking at a potential #2 starter here, so Weaver is probably not a fit for the remaining spot.  Batista may be worth 3 yrs/24 million, but he had a 4.58 ERA.  Of course, Lilly’s was 4.31, so there’s not much #2 material out there after Zito and Schmidt.  The best move may be no move at all.  Walt already pulled a nice deal to extend Carp for below market value, so let’s see what has up his sleeve over the next few days.

Welcome back old friend

You’d think I’d talk about the signings of Adam Kennedy and Kip Wells before I’d talk about Eli Marrero, but you’d be wrong.  After all, I predicted that Kennedy would be back (and was only off by $666K/yr on the amount) and Wells is just the kind of low-risk high-reward signing that Jocketty specializes in, so it was not too hard to imagine those deals.  I also predicted the Gary Bennett re-signing as well, but that one was fairly easy.

The one I want to talk about is the Eli Marrero signing to a minor-league contract.  He would make a nice bench player (in place of a Timo Perez type from ‘06) and can be the 3rd catcher.  He has more power than So Taguchi and can fill in at the corner OF positions.  If the Cardinals don’t sign Gonzo and don’t trade Duncan, he can platoon with li’l Dunc and play with the big club.  Otherwise, he will be adequate at Memphis and be ready in case of injury or for call-up in September.

He had a nice year in 2002 (.262/18/66) while playing 131 games.  The last time he play semi-regularly was in Atlanta and he performed well (.320/10/40 in 90 games), so he may have problems adjusting to bench duty (although TLR will get him at-bats if he makes the club, that much is certain).  He didn’t fare too well his last two seasons with Baltimore and the Mets in a limited role.

 The Marrero signing was low-risk by Walt and could turn out to be the Spezio of ‘07… we’ll just have to wait and see.

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I’ll be back tomorrow with analysis on the pitching available to the Cards as they try and fill the other rotation hole(s).

Cards quiet, Cubs not so much

It’s been a while since anything has happened with the Cards and free agents.  Nothing has really happened of note.  They waived Larry Bigbie and Carmen Cali and moved pitchers Blake Hawksworth (who should be a starter at Memphis next season), Troy Cate, and Dennis Dove and OFer Cody Haerther to the 40-man roster.

The Cubs have apparently decided to replace every position player on their team except Derrick Lee and none of their pitchers.  Too bad really, as the Cards can tell them that pitching wins championships, not offense.  What good is it to score six runs a game when you have Jason Marquis and Sid Ponson starting 40% of your games (and the Cubs have been linked to Marquis – they can have him).

So what will Jocketty do?  He still needs a second baseman and there are options  (Belliard, Cairo, Chris Gomez, Durham, Kennedy, Loretta, Woodward, and Graffanino).  It seems like he is waiting out the storm and will swoop in with another Christmas eve deal like he has the last two off-seasons.  Let’s just hope we don’t wake up to another Junior Spivey in our stockings this year.

Ed. Note: I’ll be on vacation with no Interweb access until December 1, so go visit one (or all) of the fine Cards blogs in the links at the right for your fix while I’m away.  Happy Thanksgiving to all.

Signings

Scott Spezio is back… for two years / $4.5 million + ‘09 option.  That seems like a lot of money to me unless they plan on playing him at second base with Miles.  Of course, he’ll get time in the OF too.  Another scenario that could be brewing is a trade of Encarnacion which would open up an OF spot for Speez.  $2,250,000 is a lot of money to pay a bench player… it just makes you go hmmmm.

 Cards signed left-handed reliever Randy Kiesler as well to a split contract:  $110K for the minor-league part and $450K for the MLB part.  He’s been mediocre in a brief stint with the Reds and A’s.  He pitched in 10 games for the A’s this season and spent the rest of the year in AAA.  He did OK there with a 3.93 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, and almost 2-1 K/BB ratio.  Maybe Duncan can do something with him.  Probably just insurance and a roster filler for Memphis.

World Series $hare$ announced

Here’s the link to the complete info…

St. Louis Cardinals (Share of Players’ Pool: $20,016,735.81; value of each full share: $362,173.07) – The Cardinals awarded 48 full shares, 7.133 partial shares and 16 cash awards.

 I’ll be back tomorrow with some speculation on how these got divvied up… I won’t read any actual reports before-hand and we’ll see how close I get to the real thing.

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Here we go… remember, this is just a fun little guessing game.  We may never know the actual distribution.

Full shares

Players(26): Encarnancion, Pujols, Rolen, Eckstein, Miles, Molina, Edmonds, Taguchi, Duncan, Spezio, Rodriguez, Bennett, Carpenter, Marquis, Suppan, Weaver, Mulder, Reyes, Hancock, Wainwright, Looper, Thompson, Johnson, Flores, Isringhausen, Kinney

Coaches/Staff (16): LaRussa, Duncan, McRae, McKay, Oquendo, Pettini, Mason, Schoendienst, Weinberg, Hauck, Prinzi, Rowan, Moore, Cherre, Blair

 Front Office/Scouts (6): Jocketty, Lamping, J Walker, Luhnow, Mozeliak, Manno, Jorgenson

Partial Shares

Wilson, Luna, Belliard, Ponson, Schumacher, Sosa, Narveson, Rincon (.133)

Cash Awards

Vizcaino, T Perez, Bigbie, Gall, Rose, Nelson, Falkenborg

Risch, Robinson, Vuch, Grisch, Harford, Keogh, Schueler, Squires, Bat boys (Josh & Nate?)

FA Second basemen number dwindling

Another one bites the dust…  Kennedy’s (and the others) price may be going up.  Loretta, Kennedy, and DeRosa remain the best options.

[EDIT] – DeRosa to the Cubs?  3 years/ 13 million is the offer.  Overpaid?  Yes.  The Cards are running out of options quickly.

Ronnie Belliard – He was primarily brought over to provide offense and stability at second base.  His defense was perhaps the most valuable contribution as he saved multiple runs in the post-season.  Most signs point to him returning to Cleveland next season.  With the acquisition of Barfield, Cleveland doesn’t need him anymore.  He hit .272 and made $4,000,000 in ‘06.  He’ll take at least that in ‘07 and I’m not sure he’s a good fit in the Cards’ lineup offensively.  We can hide Molina, but if Belliard hits like he did after the trade, the offense will suffer and two black holes at the bottom of the lineup are hard to overcome.

Miguel Cairo- The former Cardinal had an OPS of just .600 in 222 ABs for the Yankees.  He’s primarily a back-up now.

Mark DeRosa- An intriguing possibility out of Texas, as Mark hit .296 with 13 HRs and 40 doubles.  He played 6 different positions this year, so he’d fit right in on a TLR team.  Reported to be signing with the Cubs.

Ray Durham – Slugged way over his head this year (almost 100 points over his career average) and made $7,000,000.  He will be priced out of the Cards’ range.

Chris Gomez- a useful bench player (can play all the infield positions) and he hit .341 in a limited role with Baltimore.

Adam Kennedy – the one who everyone is talking about in Cardinal Nation.  A career .280 hitter and he stole 16 bases in 26 attempts.  He not be back with the Angels, but the Mets may overbid for him.  He made 3.35 million in ‘06 and will probably require 3 years/12 million to sign.  If Edmonds goes, Kennedy is within the budget.

Mark Loretta- along with Kennedy and Belliard, Loretta is one of the top 2Bmen available.  A career .299 hitter, he is familiar with the National League and would probably sign for around $3.5-4 million per for two or three years.  Solid defender as well.

Ramon Martinez – has never played more than 128 games.  Strictly a utility player at this point in his career.  Re-signed with LA.

Kaz Matsui – Offered 1.5 million by the Rockies to come back, but will probably go back to Japan.  He hit .267 in Colorado.  Enough said.  He got his 1.5 million from Colorado.

Jose Valentin – He’s 37 and wants to be a starter.  Career .243 hitter, but hit .271 with 18 HRs for the Mets.  Not a viable option for the cards to start at second base as he could not hit at the top of the order. Will re-sign with the Mets.

Chris Woodward- Hit .216 with the Mets.  Had surgery to repair a torn labrum last week.  Will be back-up somewhere for around the $800K he made in ‘06.

The options are few and far between at this position.  Since Soriano is way out of the Cards’ price range, it looks like it comes down to Belliard, Loretta, or Kennedy.  All are similarly priced, but the Cards will need to work quickly to get one of them signed.  You really can’t go wrong with any of them, but Loretta and Kennedy are better hitters than Belliard, so the Cards will most likely focus there.  The $2,000,000 budget from last off-season for 2B will definitely need to be raised here.  Edmonds’ signing will have an impact here as far as money available.

Tony Graffanino - He made just over $2,000,000 in ‘06 and gave decent production (.274/7/59).  The Cards could be interested if they can’t (or won’t) pony up the money required for Kennedy. 

My prediction: Kennedy returns for 3 years/12 million.

Tell me what’s wrong here

Louisville Slugger announced the 2006 Silver Slugger awards on Friday.  From the article (emphasis is mine):

Silver Slugger Awards were determined by a vote of MLB managers and coaches who selected the opposing players they felt were the best offensive producers at each position in the American and National Leagues. Selections were based on a combination of offensive statistics, including batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage.

Now look at this:

Player	G	AB	OBP	SLG	AVG
A	143	535	.431	.671	.331
B	159	581	.425	.659	.313

Player B won the award.  Player A of course, is Albert Pujols.  Player B is Ryan Howard.  I’m mildly disgusted.

That “combination of offensive statistics” must’ve been heavily skewed by HRs and RBIs.

Edmonds extension imminent?

According to Ken Rosenthal…

“Edmonds’ average salary in the deal is expected to be comparable to the $10 million he would receive if the Cardinals exercised his option for 2007.”

 I don’t like this at all.  Don’t get me wrong, because I love Jimmy E, but I don’t think he’s worth $10 a year.  I’d buy 7.5 million per, but not $10,000,000.  Where are they going to get money to replace 3/5 of the rotation?  If the Edmonds money is not majorly deferred/incentive-based, this is going to hurt the team overall.  I hope Rosenthal is off on his figures.  Really, if you’re going to pay him $10,000,000 average anyway, unless the 2007 money is very low why wouldn’t you just pick up the option and let him play this year for $10,000,000????  It doesn’t make any sense.

EDIT: Larry at vivaelbirdos mirrors my thoughts this morning.  You know what they say about great minds…